Brett Winton: 结合对 2030 年全球经济产品 210 万亿美元的预期全球公平与 GDP 之比恢复到 1985 年后的平均水平（并假设股息大致抵消了新发行的净额）建议到 2030 年，每年的股本复合实际回报率 > 10% https://t.co/7g3Li4PNED 引用@wintonARK 的推文： 2030年国内生产总值共识：130万亿美元超指数预测：170 万亿美元似乎很多但我们对机器人出租车和人工智能驱动的知识工作软件的经济预期为 210 万亿美元 twitter.com/wintonark/stat… https://t.co/HvGMjP01ub

Posted on 2022-10-06

原推：Combine an expectation for $210 trillion in 2030 global economic product

with global equity to GDP returning to the post-1985 average

(and assume that dividends roughly offset net new issuance)

Suggests real returns to equity compounding annually at >10% through 2030 https://t.co/7g3Li4PNED

Quoted tweet from @wintonARK:

2030 GDP

Consensus: $130 trillion

Hyper-exponential forecast: $170 trillion

Seems a lot

But

Our economic expectations for just robotaxi and AI-driven knowledge work software suggest $210 trillion twitter.com/wintonark/stat… https://t.co/HvGMjP01ub

https://twitter.com/wintonARK/status/1577815735941726208