Brett Winton: 专家们认为还有 60 个月的时间。 它在 18 个月内到达。 AI 速度约为 4 倍，即使是受到激励的专家也能感知/预期。 bounded-regret.ghost.io/ai-forecasting/

原推：The experts thought it was 60 months away.

It arrived in 18 months.

AI velocity at ~4x what even incentivized experts can perceive/anticipate.

bounded-regret.ghost.io/ai-forecasting/
https://twitter.com/wintonARK/status/1542688982965927937